If you had the chance to recommend a few books for the two presumptive candidates for U.S. President to read with the guarantee that they would actually read them, what books would you suggest they read? This was the question posed by a talk radio host on one of the Boston local stations last week. Most of the suggestions from callers (and the co-hosts) were interesting, but pretty predictable and bland -- political biographies, by far, dominating the list.

I kept thinking about that question for the rest of the day. So many came to mind that had an impact on me. But I kept forcing myself to think about one or two that might really affect the thinking of someone who would be the next president. What books would make your list?

'Parable of the Tribes' would be high on my list. (GW)

The Parable of the Tribes: The Problem of Power in Social Evolution
By Andrew Bard Schmookler
Berkeley: University of California. 1995

The subject is power. And the author's thesis is obvous only in the sense that Newton's law of gravity seems obvious to those who think it states that ''what goes up must come down'' or Mendel's laws to those who construe them as stating that ''blood will out.'' Mr. Schmookler's ''parable'' certainly does not have the far-reaching and marvelous precision of Newton's law or the originality of either Newton's or Mendel's laws, but it goes far beyond our common folk knowledge about power. Standing on the shoulders of some giants of social and political theory and enlisting the aid of leading modern figures in political anthropology, Mr. Schmookler surveys a vast landscape of history and ethnology that has been molded by power in something like the way the physical landscape has been molded by gravity - sometimes obscurely or indirectly but nonetheless lawfully. What he describes, if not nice, for the most part has a logic that is satisfying. (New York Times Book Review).

Excerpt:

As man became freer of the controls of nature, he became subject to new, perhaps harsher necessities. Paradoxically, the very open-endedness of human possibilities created forces that drove human destiny in a direction that people did not and would not choose. Civilization represented not the old cultural process coming to fuller fruit but a new phenomenon governed by a wholly new evolutionary principle. The emergence of this new principle marks the vital point of discontinuity in the history of life and explains civilization's problematic course.

The new human freedom made striving for expansion and power possible. Such freedom, when multiplied, creates anarchy. The anarchy among civilized societies meant that the play of power in the system was uncontrollable. In an archaic system like that, no one can choose that the struggle for power shall cease. But there is one more element in the picture: no one is free to choose peace, but anyone can impose upon all the necessity for power. This is the lesson of the parable of the tribes.

Excerpt:

A handicap in the pursuit of power is integrity, that unity between the ground of one's existence and one's values and one's actions. Power systems are therefore hostile to integrity and to the humane cultural traditions that provide an orientation to help people achieve it. The power that erupted in the West has from the outset sought the disintegration of the cultural principles that stood in its way...The disintegration of culture allows more mechanical priniciples to enter the social body and govern it.

Shaped by power, our systems are in many ways not our tools. Indeed, they press us to become instruments to their ends. The needed integrity between human needs on the one hand and cultural design and practice on the other remain far from realization in a world ruled by power. The challenge to us is to find a way to act with integrity and with an understanding of the antagonism between the human and the power system.

The opposite of integrity is opportunism, which is the willingness to allow the environment to govern one's course. Like water flowing downhill, the opportunist takes the course of least resistance. In an ideal world, opportunism and integrity would be the same thing. But as long as social evolution is governed by forces that threaten to drag human well- being down, the only responsible course is to labor against the current. At the same time, in a world filled with grave necessities, one cannot survive by simply going against gravity. For integrity to be more than gesture and martyrdom, it, too, must find its opportunities. In a complex and dangerous world, the path for individuals and for societies between self-destruction and the loss of soul is at best narrow but not straight.

Our planet is not running out of water. That's not the problem. The problem is that one person out of every three in the world today lacks reliable access to freshwater. There are a variety of reasons for this: rising populations, aging infrastructure, industrial/chemical-intensive agribusiness, industrial pollution to name the more obvious.

We take the quality of our water supply for granted at our own peril. The world must focus its attention to this growing problem and take advantage of the options that exist for addressing this crisis while they still exist. (GW)

Water everywhere, and not a drop to grow

By Colin Chartres
BBC News
August 20, 2008

Limited availability of fresh water is often overlooked as a cause of food scarcity and environmental decline, according to Colin Chartres. Governments should be ramping up efforts to make sure we have enough to grow crops as well as enough to drink, he argues.

Essentially, every calorie of food requires a litre of water to produce it

This year, the world and, in particular, developing countries and the poor have been hit by both food and energy crises.

As a consequence, prices for many staple foods have risen by up to 100%.

When we examine the causes of the food crisis, there are many contributing factors: a growing population, changes in trade patterns, urbanisation, dietary habits, biofuel production, climate change and regional droughts.

Thus, we have a classic increase in prices as a result of high demand and low supply. However, few commentators specifically mention the declining availability of water that is needed to grow irrigated and rain-fed crops.

According to some, the often mooted solution to the food crisis lies in plant breeding that produces the ultimate high yielding, low water-consuming crops.

While this solution is important, it will fail unless attention is paid to where the water for all the food, fibre and energy crops is going to come from.

Thirsty world

The causes of water scarcity are essentially identical to those of the food crisis.

There are serious and extremely worrying factors that indicate water supplies are close to exhaustion in some countries.

Population growth over the next four decades will see the number of people in the world increase from 6.5 billion up to 9.0 billion.

Essentially, every calorie of food requires a litre of water to produce it.

So on average, we require between 2,000 and 3,000 litres of water per person to sustain our daily food requirements.

We will have 2.5 billion extra mouths to feed by 2050, so finding the extra water each year will not be an easy task, given that it is more than double what is currently used in irrigation.

We also have to bear in mind that the availability of new fertile land in humid areas for rain-fed farming is extremely limited.

Recent studies, as part of the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, have indicated that we will not be able to produce all the food, feed and fibre required in 2050 unless we improve the way we manage water.

Invest and survive

A few years ago, the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) demonstrated that many countries are facing severe water scarcity, either as a result of a lack of available freshwater, or as a consequence of a lack of investment in infrastructure such as dams and reservoirs.

Current estimates indicate that we will not have enough water to feed ourselves in 40 years time

What makes matters worse is that this scarcity predominantly affects developing countries where the majority of the world's 840 million undernourished people live.

However, there are potential solutions. These include more water storage, improved management of irrigation systems and increasing water productivity in irrigated and rain-fed farming systems.

All of these will require investment in knowledge, infrastructure and human capacity.

Better water storage has to be considered. Ethiopia, which is typical of many sub-Saharan African countries, has a storage capacity of 38 cubic metres per person.

In contrast, Australia has almost 5,000 cubic metres per person, an amount that in the face of current climate change impacts may be inadequate.

Whilst there will be a need for new large and medium-sized dams to deal with this critical lack of storage in Africa, other simpler solutions will also be part of the equation.

These include the construction of small reservoirs, sustainable use of groundwater systems including artificial groundwater recharge, and rainwater harvesting for smallholder vegetable gardens.

Improved year-round access to water will help farmers maintain their own food security using simple supplementary irrigation techniques.

The redesign of both the physical and institutional arrangements of some large and often dysfunctional irrigation schemes will also bring the required productivity increases.

Safe, risk-free re-use of wastewater from growing cities will also be needed.

Of course, these actions need to be paralleled by development of drought-tolerant crops, and the provision of infrastructure and facilities to get fresh food to markets.

Resource competition

Since the formulation of the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), much of the water agenda has been focused around the provision of drinking water and sanitation.

This puts demand on the same resources as agricultural water; and as we urbanise and improve living standards, increasing competition for drinking water from domestic and other urban users will put agriculture under further pressure.

While improving drinking water and sanitation is vital with respect to health and living standards, we cannot afford to neglect the provision and improved productivity of water for agriculture.

Current estimates indicate that we will not have enough water to feed ourselves in 40 years time, by when the current food crisis may turn into a perpetual crisis.

Just as in other areas of agricultural research and development, investment in the provision and better management of water resources has declined steadily since the Green Revolution.

My water science colleagues and I are raising a warning flag that significant investment in both research and development and water infrastructure development is needed if dire consequences are to be avoided.

Dr Colin Chartres is director-general of the Sri Lanka-based International Water Management Institute (IWMI), a not-for-profit research organisation focusing on the sustainable management of water resources for food, livelihoods and the environment

To read the summary of "Water for Food, Water for Life", visit http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Assessment

Thinking about investing in renewable energy companies? Apparently so are a lot of Wall Street investors. I don't pretend to know much about this, but it seems clear that, among other things, investors have paid attention to T. Boone Pickens. Pickens, who spent a lifetime in the oil business where he amassed a forutne, has determined that the future of energy is blowing in the wind. Now he's investing part of the fortune to build the largest wind project in America.

But Pickens is not alone in touting the virtues of wind energy these days. Not by a long shot.

"Mad Money" manager Jim Cramer points out, paying attention to the entire wind energy 'value chain' can really expand your investment options. (GW)

All You Need To Know About Wind Energy

The Street.com
August 22, 2008

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, up to 20% of the country's energy supply could be generated by wind power by 2030.

In May, T. Boone Pickens' Mesa Power ordered 667 wind turbines from GE (GE - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) as part of its plans for a giant wind farm in Texas.

That same month, Jim Cramer wrote on TheStreet.com: "Sanford Bernstein put out a fabulous report today [May 15] about alternative energy that waxed wonderfully about wind and a little less wonderfully about solar. The latter isn't as loved, because the average selling price of solar is too high vs. the dirty competition."

On July 17, The Dallas Morning News reported that the Texas Public Utility Commission authorized $4.93 billion of new wind power transmission lines, solidifying the state's position as the country's largest generator of wind power.

Five days later, at a hearing of the U.S. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, Pickens testified that the county needs to reduce its demand for foreign oil and ramp-up its own clean and renewable energy infrastructure, particularly wind.

Tuesday, at the National Clean Energy Summit in Las Vegas, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg proposed his plan to make New York City a leader in clean power production -- again, the focus was on wind.

So how much do you really know about wind energy?

The following are key insights from TheStreet.com on the potential opportunities and risks in wind energy investing.

China Watch: A-Power's a Sparkler (Video, Aug. 11)

Larsen Kusick of the Breakout Stocks portfolio sheds light on A-Power (APWR - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), a company entering the wind-power industry in China, and explains how to play it.

To watch the video, click the player below:

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Xantrex [Toronto Stock Exchange ticker: XTX] gets a bid! Here's a Canadian wind play that just got bought by France's Schneider Electric... it is significant because the wind plays that matter are being snapped up left and right.

This wind story is a 2009 story in terms of earnings, but it is a takeover and consolidation story right now.

From Cramer: Xantrex Will Blow You Away (Video):

Jim Cramer: "I think that what's most interesting, is they're [Schneider Electric] buying [Xantrex] for the wind exchangers... One of the things that's really difficult about wind... there's absolutely no interface for most states between wind turbines and the power grid... because the states have been reluctant to make a bet on wind. I think Boone Pickens is going to change that, and these inverters could be in a lot of different windmills. So this was a very smart acquisition... [Broadwind Energy (BWEN - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr)]has now become more seasonal... no near term catalyst, but I believe if Schneider bought this XTX, they're going to buy Broadwind."

To watch the video, click the player below:

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From Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap for July 31:

"Wind and solar stocks are transcending the weakness in oil," said Cramer, indicating that the strength in these sectors is genuine, and will continue even if oil hits his ultimate target of below $120 a barrel.

Cramer: Give Your Portfolio Wind Power (Video, Jul. 17):

Jim Cramer reviews his "wind-ex" stocks.

To watch the video, click the player below:

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From Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Inherit the Wind Stock:

To help illustrate the many great companies involved in the wind power business, Cramer built a windmill from scratch, piece by piece, to show which companies make each component.

First, Cramer featured the wind tower business that makes the support structures for windmills. Here, he reiterated... Otter Tail (OTTR - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) as [one of] the best stocks to own.

Finally, Cramer said... MasTec (MTZ - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) [is one of] the best companies for the wind power infrastructure needed to bring power from the mill to the grid.

New Wind-Energy ETF Blows Into Town (Video, Jun. 29)

High oil prices have investors turning to wind-energy stocks. Robert Carey, chief investment officer at First Trust, says the new exchange-traded fund -- ticker FAN (FAN - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) -- is the safest way to play the emerging sector.

To watch the video, click the player below:

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From Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Wade In with Kaydon:

Cramer explained that while Kaydon (KDN - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) is best known for its industrial bearing business that mainly serves heavy industry as well as the aerospace and defense markets, the company is also the market leader in low-friction wind turbine bearings.

Wind power currently only accounts for 8% of Kaydon's sales, but is 50% of the company's current backlog. According to Cramer, wind power should account for 20% of the company's sales by 2009 and is expected to triple by 2010.

From Cramer's 'Mad Money Recap': Stocks That Can Take a Hit:

Cramer called [Thomas & Betts (TNB - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr)] another "stealth" wind power stock that investors need to consider.

"Everything that wind touches is getting bigger," said Cramer who noted the management of Thomas & Betts is doing little to promote this small, but growing, portion of their business. Cramer said the company has also been selling unprofitable product lines and concentrating their efforts on its core competencies.

While Thomas & Betts reported lackluster earnings on April 30, Cramer noted the company said most of its sales will be during the latter half of the year. He also said the company's international exposure, which now stands at 40% of sales, is up from just 30% a year ago.

Cramer: Wind Stocks Are Towers of Power (Video, May 7)

A lack of supply for towers has the wind sector on fire, says Cramer. A pure (but speculative) play: Broadwind Energy (BWEN - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr). Cramer thinks "this can be a gigantic, gigantic company."

To watch the video, click the player below:

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Plus, don't miss Cramer: Broadwind's the Weather Vane of Wind Sector and Cramer: Buy Nat Gas Now, Wind in '09 on TheStreet.com TV.

From Cramer's 'Mad Money Recap': Woodward Governor's Big Wind Power Play:

[Cramer] called [Woodward Governor(WGOV - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr)] a forward thinker that now estimates its wind power business to be worth $100 million by the end of fiscal 2008, compared to the consensus estimates of only $60 million.

To bolster its wind power business, Woodward recently added its first Chinese turbine manufacturer and is building a new factory in Colorado. He said the company's wind power business is growing at a staggering 150% a year, far more than any "high-tech" company can deliver.

From Woodward Builds Power Behind the Scenes:

Woodward Governor posted another stellar quarter last night [Jul. 21].

Woodward Governor earned 47 cents a share in its fiscal third quarter and beat consensus estimates of 43 cents (a 9.3% upside beat). Sales grew rose 23% year over year to $329 million, vs. the $308 million consensus (a 6.8% upside beat).

Even better, management issued upside guidance for fiscal 2008. It now sees revenue growth of roughly 20%, up from 14% to 16%, and $1.75 in earnings, up from the previous guidance of $1.61 to $1.66.

The company's business is divided into three segments: turbine systems, engine systems and electrical power systems. It is a front-and-center supplier to the drive for more efficient and cleaner energy systems.

On yesterday's conference call, Tom Gendron, president and CEO, discussed industrial turbine demand, saying, "Emission regulations, growing global energy demands and newer projects such as coal gasification all should provide opportunities for Woodward."

Favorable Winds

Also, Woodward Governor is a stealth play on wind power. In October 2006, it acquired SEG, a German designer and manufacturer of wind power generation products. Although the wind business is still a small fraction of overall revenue, it is growing rapidly. The company has guided to slightly higher than $100 million in revenue for the year (about 9% of total revenue).

Gendron says, "Demand for wind turbines continues to grow at a remarkable rate." The CFO adds, "Again this quarter, wind power sales were very strong."

From Cramer's 'Mad Money Recap': Emerson's New Tech Look:

Cramer proclaimed that 2009 will be the year of wind power and recommended Owens Corning (OC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) as his favorite wind power stock.

Cramer said that Owens Corning, often thought of as just a supplier of insulation, is transforming itself into a great global manufacturer of alternative energy components. The company now has a glass-fiber composites business that accounts for 33% of its sales.

Cramer said the glass composites business combines glass fibers with other materials to make incredibly strong and flexible substances for wind turbines, among other applications.

From Jim Cramer's 'Stop Trading!': Win With Wind:

Cramer said that the U.S. is facing a shortage of supply of windmills. "Everybody who's involved in making them, it's a win still," Cramer said. He recommended Quanta Services (PWR - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) and Trinity Industries (TRN - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) as plays on his thesis.

Cramer: Quanta Is a Wind-Win (Video, Jul. 23)

Cramer dives into his favorite wind plays in light of the recent drop in energy prices.

To watch the video, click the player below:

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Plus, don't miss Cramer: Trinity Is the Wind Play on TheStreet.com TV.

From Cramer's 'Mad Money Recap': America's New Tech Stars:

Cramer welcomed Dan Batrack, chairman and CEO of alternative energy supplier Tetra Tech (TTEK - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), to the show to discuss what he called the company's "breakout quarter."

Batrack said that his company had a very strong quarter, with net income up 30%, revenue up 35% and the company's backlog up 40%. He credited the company's growth to strong demand for wind power.

Batrack believes the U.S. wind power market is growing faster than the consensus forecast of 25% growth. He said his company has booked over $170 million worth of orders for wind products in the past 90 days.

The image of the modern-day wind turbine has become the symbol representing the vision of achieving a global clean energy future. In many ways, wind energy is both of and ahead of its time. Therein lies the frustration. Many people who proudly wear or display the icon signaling their support for renewable energy are more reticent when wind projects are actually proposed for their communities.

Beauty is definitely in the eye of the beholder. Unfortunately, for some, the farther away wind turbines are sited, the more beautiful they become. But this too is subject to change as the twin goals of energy security and global climate change continue to converge.

Becoming the Big New Idea: First, Look the Part

By Mary Jo Murphy
New York Times
August 24, 2008

The wind turbine’s detractors fall into roughly two categories. To some objectors, the turbine is the devil’s own trident — a whirling, whirring one that thwacks birds, chews bats and sets whales’ teeth on edge. To the less eco-minded, it is the blight just outside the front window or off the back porch — if yours happens to be the front window or back porch.

But none of that matters just now. The wind turbine is the “it” item of summer 2008.

It is everywhere, and not in a bad way. Advertisements broadcast by the presidential campaigns of Senators John McCain and Barack Obama during the Olympics have featured almost identical pastoral panning shots of turbines. If you add the General Electric commercials that boast of the green-powering of the Games, the TV screen has shown wind turbines gleaming white more often than Michael Phelps flashing gold. There are turbines posing among the mannequins in the Calvin Klein windows on Madison Avenue. And last week Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg planted in New Yorkers’ heads images of turbines on the bridges and rooftops and — an instance of icon meeting icon — lighting Lady Liberty’s torch with their gusty might.

Not since Don Quixote have so many windmills presented such an orgy of illusion: wind power accounts for only about 1 percent of the nation’s energy. Notwithstanding the ardent advocacy of people like T. Boone Pickens, oilman turned windman, it will be some time before the production catches up to the publicity.

But that’s the way it is with a cultural icon: it is both of and ahead of its time, and it knows that looking good is half the battle. (You can almost hear Heidi Klum telling the “Project Runway” contestants, “Your next challenge, designers, is to create an outfit for a wind turbine, fashion icon!”)

The most common wind turbine is a Danish design. Tall, sleek, clean, futuristic in a kind of retro Jetsons way (the turbine’s a little old for an ingénue), it’s your childhood pinwheel all grown up and playing for keeps.

“What makes this such a powerful icon is that it’s unbelievably simple and telegraphic,” said Allen P. Adamson, managing director of the New York office of Landor Associates, a corporate branding firm, and “and yet it’s a serious idea.”

Edward Tenner, author of “Our Own Devices: How Technology Remakes Humanity,” suggests that the appeal of the design owes something to a Modernist and Scandinavian revival. The popular television series “Mad Men,” for example, is a catalog of Danish modern.

Mr. Tenner, whose next book will be about positive unintended consequences, sees in the rise of the wind turbine parallels to icons like the compact fluorescent lamp, the geodesic dome, even the railroad. A rectangular fluorescent bulb had been around for a while, he noted, but “I think there is something about the spiral design that makes it visually arresting.”

Of course, one man’s arresting is another’s hideous, but this is a matter of how people train their perceptions. Mr. Tenner cites old bumper stickers that say “Jet Noise: The Sound of Freedom.” Similarly, advocates of wind power “may actually see the sound of these blades as reassuring, but to others it’s a visual and sonic intrusion.”

But “perception of technology in the environment changes,” Mr. Tenner said, recalling the railroad that cuts through the lovely Lake District. “Is then no nook of English ground secure/ From rash assault?” Wordsworth complained in 1844 in his “Sonnet on the Projected Kendal and Windermere Railway.” Now railways like that are greatly admired. “On the other hand,” Mr. Tenner said, “wind turbines don’t really complement the terrain as, for example, the Ribblehead Viaduct in Yorkshire did.” The turbines “are a bold, Modernist appropriation of the landscape.”

The geodesic dome was associated with the same sort of progressive thinking in design that led to the wind turbine. It was “part of this movement for lightness and new materials and a smaller human footprint,” Mr. Tenner said, and it became almost a cult object on college campuses beginning in the 1950s. But technical problems over time consigned it to a niche standing.

So what else does an icon have to do besides look good to a lot of people?

The best icons tell a story, says Seth Godin, author of “All Marketers Are Liars,” and it’s “a story that validates our feelings and amplifies the way we look at the world.” The fins on cars of the 1950s are a good example, he said. “It didn’t have anything to do with how good the car was,” but the fins evoked a rocket ship. “Rockets, of course, were the icon of the day, so capturing that rocketness in a car transferred some of the magic.”

The wind turbine also plays to American mythology, which “is all about supply,” Mr. Godin theorizes. “Demand is our right. It’s our right to be wasteful and profligate. The supply is never-ending and will take care of itself. So an icon that represents a risk-free way to increase supply resonates with us.” Mr. Obama is right when he says you should put more air in your tires, Mr. Godin says, “but there’s resistance, because that is something you have to do right now. For some people, this is scolding. Somehow, they think, ‘it’s my fault.’ ”

Still, “there’s a huge danger if we try to build public policy about risk-free iconography and storytelling,” Mr. Godin says. “We end up with nuclear waste dumps and ethanol. There really is no free lunch, but that’s a difficult story to tell.”

The windmill, Mr. Adamson said, has “transcended its literal functionality to become an iconic symbol of the ideal.” These reedy beacons are “almost branded icons of hopeful, we-can-beat-them better mousetraps,” but there is a risk in overuse, and in offering a promise too long undelivered. Today the icon has potential, he said. “Right now it stands for ‘Don’t confuse me with the facts.’ ” But “it’s at the tipping point right now,” unless people go ahead and make good on the promise.

In the meantime, wind turbine, enjoy your moment. Stick that landing and blow a few kisses.

Hard to believe, but summer's almost over. There are still a couple of weeks of fishing left before we're back at work and in school. Now I confess that I do not fish, but if I did, I know I'd be an old-school, low-tech, no-gimmick "(fake) worm-on-a-hook" kinda fisher.

P.S. - I've walked the dog with a yo-yo, but never fished with one. (GW)

For Massachusetts Fishermen, A Weighty Debate About Fair Play

'Yo-Yoing' Is Irresistible to Striped Bass, But Technique Can Fill Them Full of Lead

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By Steve Stecklow

Wall Street Journal

August 22, 2008

EDGARTOWN, Mass. -- When Lev Wlodyka reeled in a massive 57-pound striped bass one evening last fall, it looked like he'd caught the biggest fish in the annual Martha's Vineyard Striped Bass & Bluefish Derby. Then judges cut it open.

Inside the striper's stomach they found 10 bullet-shaped lead weights weighing nearly two pounds -- surefire evidence of "yo-yoing," a baiting technique banned from the high-profile event, which will be held again next month. Mr. Wlodyka was disqualified. "I was extremely happy and then extremely perturbed, disturbed, sick," he says. The judges exonerated Mr. Wlodyka several days later, after deciding the weights had been lodged in the striper's stomach for some time. After the weights were subtracted, his fish finished second.

But the incident stirred a fierce debate here about yo-yoing, a technically challenging but potent technique that involves stuffing a bait fish with lead weight so it will sink to the ocean's bottom where big stripers lie. Popular in this corner of southeastern Massachusetts, yo-yoing is reviled by many sports anglers as unsportsmanlike and a potential source of toxic lead contamination to the fish -- and the people who eat them.

Unlike metal or plastic artificial lures, which are rarely swallowed by fish, critics say yo-yoing's bait too often leads to lead-filled stomachs. "There's just a cleaner way to catch striped bass...something that doesn't pollute the environment, that doesn't contaminate fish and doesn't represent a health hazard to the consumer of this fish," says Ronald Domurat, a beach ranger and derby committee member.

Last November, both the derby committee and the 150-member Martha's Vineyard Surfcasters Association called for Massachusetts to ban yo-yoing altogether. This year, "On the Water," a New England-based fishing magazine, banned yo-yoing in the annual fishing tournament it sponsors, the Striper Cup, which is currently under way and draws about 3,000 competitors from New Jersey to Maine.

A Veiled Attack?

Yo-yoing practitioners, mostly commercial fishermen, insist such concerns are overblown and say the assault is really a veiled attack on their livelihood by recreational anglers. Fishing for stripers has become a major sport in recent years, as conservation measures boosted the species' population.

Fear-mongering about lead poisoning "is sensationalism at its finest," charged a letter in the Martha's Vineyard Times by Scott Terry, possibly the only commercial fisherman who defends the practice publicly.

Yo-yoing is legal -- for now. Earlier this year, the Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries passed on instituting a ban and decided to discourage the practice through education instead, says Michael P. Armstrong, the state's program manager for recreational fisheries.

Dr. Armstrong says the division hasn't received any complaints of lead-filled fish showing up at restaurants or fishmongers, and that enforcing a ban would be difficult. He also noted that the lead used in big weights tends not to be absorbed by fish. "We've looked into it," he says. "I can't tell you that without any doubt that there's not a health hazard problem, but the literature says there isn't."

Yo-yoers stuff lead weight -- the metal is commonly used in fishing because of its density and affordability -- into a bait fish called a menhaden. Then they stick a barbecue skewer along the fish's spine, clip its mouth closed with a "hog ring" and attach the top of the fish to a hook. The weighted fish is then dropped near the ocean's bottom and slowly yanked up and down. Done properly, proponents and opponents alike say yo-yoing can be diabolically effective at simulating live quarry and luring the biggest stripers.

The origins of yo-yoing are steeped in lore. Mr. Terry, the commercial fisherman, maintains that the technique was pioneered in the 1970s by striped-bass fishermen in Rhode Island, who managed to keep the secret to themselves for two decades.

Once word got out, it quickly spread. Mr. Terry says commercial fisherman around the Vineyard were forced to adopt the practice or lose giant striped bass to yo-yoing rivals. "You've got to do that in order to catch the fish," says Everett "Porky" Francis, owner of Captain Porky's Bait & Tackle shop in Edgartown. "There are a lot of recreational guys who do it as well."

Admiration From Critics

A salty, 56-year-old Cape Cod resident and accomplished painter, Mr. Terry agreed to demonstrate yo-yoing to a Wall Street Journal reporter to show that it could be done responsibly. Proper yo-yoing is not easy; even some critics express a certain admiration for the arcane art.

Standing in the back of his boat, Mr. Terry removed a menhaden from a bucket and took out a homemade lead sinker with a small eyelet on top. Before inserting the weight into the fish, he cut a short length of monofilament and tied one end to the eyelet and the other to the fishing line above the hook. The idea: If the fish steals the bait, the lead sinker will pop out of its mouth.

To keep the menhaden straight and natural-looking, Mr. Terry inserted a wooden barbecue skewer -- which he says is safer than metal -- through one of its eyes and along its spine. "Tell me that doesn't look like a live fish," he said as he jiggled the bait in the water.

Mr. Terry powered the boat out to Vineyard Sound and began fishing. The secret to yo-yoing, he says, is to keep the bait fish about one foot off the bottom, where big stripers like to rest when they aren't feeding. The technique acquired its name, he says, because "you're always lowering the rod to feel the bottom and lifting it up a foot."

After a few minutes of yo-yoing, Mr. Terry felt a big tug. "We've got a fish!" he shouted. He had hooked a large bluefish, but as it hit the surface, it got away. All that was left was an empty hook -- the bait, including the lead weight, was gone.

Write to Steve Stecklow at steve.stecklow@wsj.com

China's commitment to renewable energy development is encouraging. News that it energy policy is looked upon favorably by investors is more good news. That means that China is poised to meet -- or even exceed -- its clean energy goals.

That's not just good news for the people of China. It's great news for the rest of the world as well. Having said that, it is clear that much more progress (fueled by considerably more investments) will be needed if we are to be successful in stabilizing the climate system within tolerable limits. (GW)



China overtakes UK on renewables

EurActiv
August 20, 2008

The Chinese government's energy policy has led to a large rise in investment in renewables, helping it to dislodge the UK in a ranking of the top five most attractive countries for investment in renewable energy, according to a study published on 19 August.

Background:

Renewable energies such as wind power, solar energy, hydropower and biomass can play a major role in tackling the twin challenge of energy security and global warming because they are not depletable and produce less greenhouse-gas emissions than fossil fuels. They also offer a wide range of new market opportunities.

On 23 January 2008, the Commission unveiled plans to boost the EU's use of renewable energies by 20% by 2020 as part of its wider climate and energy 'package' (see EurActiv LinksDossierrelated coverage). and

The proposals set differentiated renewables targets for each member state as part of the overall 20% target, whereby member states have the option to conduct cross-border trade in renewable energy certificates, so-called Guarantees of Origin (GOs), rather than subsidising renewable energy at home.

China has risen from sixth to joint fourth place with Spain – behind the US, Germany and India – in the quarterly Ernst & Young Country Attractiveness Indices. The UK, on the other hand, has dropped from fourth to sixth place – which the consultancy largely puts down to long delays in pushing through its new Energy Bill.

China gaining ground

According to Jonathan Johns, head of renewable energy at Ernst & Young, the Chinese success story has been driven by the government's commitment to generate 15% of the country's energy from non-carbon sources by 2020. China's rapidly-growing manufacturing base also means the country is likely to largely exceed its renewables goal, becoming a major player on a market where the EU has been hoping to obtain a competitive advantage thanks to its own ambitious renewable energy targets.

"The Chinese have rapidly built up supply chain capability and are likely to have nine gigawatts of manufacturing capacity in a few years," the report states, with Johns adding: "China is also likely to become a significant exporter of wind turbine equipment in a few years, adding to its already strong presence in the solar industry."

Slow progress in the UK

In the UK on the other hand, the decision to delay the Energy Bill means "there is now a two-year period of consultation and review before any of the proposals are implemented. This will leave just ten years for the UK to establish a renewables infrastructure strong enough to meet its 2020 target," the report notes. "The UK is possibly being overly dependent upon its ability to translate ambitious targets into reality and needs to concentrate and improve its delivery track record if its position is not to decline further," it continues, calling on the government to provide more "tangible incentives for investors".

Germany – a model to follow for the EU?

The report nevertheless indicates that other European countries are performing better and underlines that the UK situation comes in "strong contrast to the speed at which Germany has addressed the challenges placed by the EU Renewables Directive".

It further notes how Germany's feed-in tariff mechanism – which guarantees renewable energy producers a buy-back price that is higher than the market price for electricity – has enabled it to deliver higher levels of renewable power at lower cost than in the UK, where renewable energy obligations are fulfilled via a system whereby companies can trade 'green certificates'. While the European Commission has been looking to duplicate the UK model at EU level, the move has encountered much resistance (EurActiv 29/04/08 and 16/01/08).

The credit crunch and the 'oil price paradox'

While the report finds that "on the whole the credit crunch has not impacted [upon] the attractiveness of the sector" as an area which to lend, it warned that the recent spike in fossil fuel prices could result in "mixed fortunes" for the renewables industry.

Indeed, while on the one hand, the rising cost of energy helps make 'free' renewable energy inputs like wind, solar or marine more competitive, on the other, soaring energy bills are putting pressure on governments to think more carefully about the impact that renewables incentive programmes could have on taxpayers and the poorest in particular.

Positions:

"To make the UK a world leader in attracting investment in this sector, and to avoid it slipping further down the index, the government needs to consider creating tangible incentives for investors, following the lead of Germany and the ambition of China," says Jonathan Johns, head of renewable energy at Ernst & Young.

However, according to the UK media BusinessGreen, a spokeswoman for the British department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR) said the government was committed to stepping up incentives for renewable energy developers through the Energy Bill and was also working to remove grid obstacles. "The UK is still an attractive place to invest and renewables are a good long term investment. A ten-fold increase in renewable energy will bring on around 160,000 jobs and an estimated £100bn of investment from the private sector," it quotes her as saying.

Next steps:

• 8 Oct. 2008: European Parliament scheduled to vote on the report by Green MEP Claude Turmes on Commission proposals to boost the share of renewables to 20% by 2020.
  

There's plenty of domestic oil and natural gas. You just need to know where to look.

Seriously, it's frustrating to continue to see and hear the visceral reaction many communities have towards wind energy projects sited within their "viewshed" as our appetite for energy grows and society teeters on the edge of an unprecedented climate disaster.

The result is that new "options" like drilling for natural gas and oil in our cities and towns could, in all likelihood, become more common.

So much for healthy communities. (GW)

Urban drilling bonanza pits neighbor against neighbor

By Ed Lavandera
CNN
August 20, 2008

FORT WORTH, Texas (CNN) -- Bishop Kenneth Spears always thought gifts from God came from above. He never imagined that the gifts would be hiding under his church in Fort Worth, Texas.

"The Bible says, 'Every place the sole of your foot should tread upon, I'll give it to you,' " said Spears, of the First St. John Missionary Baptist Church. "I walked and believed that if I prayed over that ground, if I walked over that ground, something good would come of it."

In 2006, he learned that all 15 acres of the church's property are on one of the largest natural gas fields in the country, known as the Barnett Shale.

"What a God we serve," Spears said, followed by great laughter.

Spears' church and thousands of residents around the Fort Worth area are cashing in on a unique urban drilling bonanza.

With the development of horizontal drilling technology and with gas prices sky-high, energy companies are racing to tap into the Barnett Shale natural gas field.

The Barnett Shale is the most-productive natural gas field in such a highly populated area spanning 5,000 square miles. The drilling here is being watched closely in Louisiana and Pennsylvania, which also have natural gas fields under urban areas.

Energy companies in the Fort Worth area are going door-to-door, negotiating with people for access to mineral rights under their homes. That means residents are offered a bonus check and future monthly royalty checks.

Spears' church received a $32,000 bonus and receives between $3,000 and $10,000 a month in royalty checks. The money is helping pay for a multimillion-dollar expansion and a new sanctuary.

"We're making a lot of millionaires up here in the Barnett Shale area," said Julie Wilson, vice president of Chesapeake Energy, one of the energy companies drilling wells in the Fort Worth area.

The Fort Worth Chamber of Commerce says the urban drilling craze has created more than 50,000 jobs and will pump nearly $1 billion in tax revenue into the city's economy.

But opponents of this urban drilling say that it shouldn't be done in populated areas and that the promises of many people getting rich aren't true. They say that for most people, the payouts are modest.

How much money residents get depends on how much property they own and how much gas -- if any -- is found. The dollar figure also depends on eachresident's negotiating skills with energy companies, experts say. The money can range from a few hundred dollars to tens of thousands.

"It's a divide and conquer strategy by going around and giving everybody enough money to keep them quiet. Hush money is what I call it," said Don Young, a community activist who operates a blog called FWCanDo.org. "Gas drilling is very dirty; it's very dangerous."

To 72-year-old Jerry Horton, the drilling is a threat to her cherished front yard. To move the natural gas through the city, Chesapeake Energy needs to bury a pipeline in her yard. She's been offered almost $13,000, up from the $3,000 she was initially offered.

"I wouldn't sell my front yard for a million dollars," said Horton, a retired artist who has lived in the same house for 53 years.

Chesapeake Energy recently sued Horton for access to her front yard, claiming eminent domain. The company says pipelines are crucial to keep the natural gas flowing and allow people to cash in the profits under the ground.

"I understand we need to pump our own oil, our own gas," Horton said. "But we don't need to destroy our homes, all of our trees and blow ourselves up. Who's going to be here to enjoy the gas then?"

Energy companies say that drilling for natural gas is safe and done in an environmentally friendly way. But opponents say the drilling is dangerous and a threat to the environment.

"Gas drilling ... has no business in an urban area. So I don't want to contribute to a company that's doing that to my community," said Young, who refused to let his property be used.

While energy companies maintain the drilling is not a threat to homes, some question the impact of drilling beneath neighborhoods. Young and other activists also are concerned about air and water pollution, soil contamination, health and safety issues and the loss of green space and wildlife.

"We're guinea pigs," Young said. "We're the first large metropolitan area ever to have intense natural gas drilling going on in our neighborhood, right in the heart of the city."

/* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} This is one of the most exciting and inspiring stories I've read in years. It's long, but please take the time to read it. It presents the most practical, comprehensive systems approach to weaning the automobile from petroleum I've ever seen.

Shai Agassi brings the vision of a sustainable future into clearer focus. Moreover, while incredibly ambitious, it makes that future appear considerably more attainable than it seemed yesterday. (GW)

Driven: Shai Agassi's Audacious Plan to Put Electric Cars on the Road

By Daniel Roth

Wired Magazine

August 18, 2008

Shai Agassi has proposed a grand plan to reinvent the world's automobile.

Shai Agassi looks up and down the massive rectangular table in the Ritz-Carlton ballroom and begins to worry. He knows he's out of his league here. For the last day and a half, he's been listening to an elite corps of Israeli and US politicians, businesspeople, and intellectuals debate the state of the world. Agassi is just one of 60 sequestered in a Washington, DC, hotel for a conference run by the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. Among the participants: Bill Clinton, former Israeli prime minister Shimon Peres, Supreme Court justice Stephen Breyer, and two past directors of the CIA.

It's December 2006. Scheduled to speak in a few minutes, Agassi gets nudged by the Israeli minister of education: "Be optimistic," she tells him. "We've got to close with an upbeat tone." Agassi thanks her. Optimism won't be a problem.

At 38, Agassi is the youngest invitee. Just after the dotcom boom, SAP, the world's largest maker of enterprise software, paid $400 million for a small-business software company he started with his father; now he's SAP's head of products and widely presumed to be the next CEO. But he's not here this morning to talk about business software. Instead, his topic will be the world's addiction to fossil fuels. It's a recent passion and the organizers invited him to counterbalance the man speaking now, Daniel Yergin, the famed energy consultant and oil industry analyst. Yergin gives them his latest thinking: Energy independence is unattainable. Oil consumption will continue to rise. Iran will get richer. It's not exactly what this audience wants to hear.

Now it's Agassi's turn. He starts off uncharacteristically nervous, stammering a bit. He's got something different, he says. A new approach. He believes it just might be possible to get the entire world off oil. For good. Point by point, gaining speed as he goes, he shares for the first time in public the ideas that will change his future - and possibly the world's.

Agassi has dark hair, light brown eyes, and a square jaw. He's a careful speaker, holding back until the right moment before delivering his thoughts. He's partial to dramatic pauses, especially if he's about to explain how the future is going to look - something he does all the time. People often think he's kidding, partly because he always has a slight, wry smile. But when the pause ends, what follows - no matter how far-fetched - is never a joke. At his first executive board meeting at SAP, a company that had grown dominant by moving slowly and conservatively, Agassi suggested nearly a dozen heretical ideas. He said SAP should give away its hardware and software for free - just charge for IT support. He said SAP should make its database business open source to undermine Oracle. The other board members laughed: The new kid was a cutup! But they stopped when SAP cofounder Hasso Plattner looked around the table and said, "He's the only guy making sense here."

Agassi's interest in energy is new. In 2005, he joined Young Global Leaders, an invitation-only group for politicians and businesspeople under 40. The four-day induction seminar was held at the Swiss ski resort of Zermatt. Between lectures, YGLs like Skype cofounder Niklas Zennström and NBA star Dikembe Mutombo pledged to find ways to "make the world a better place" by 2020. Agassi's assignment was the environment, and he quickly focused in on climate change.

Most left the event and just poked around in their own industries, looking for small tweaks and improvements. But Agassi wanted something bigger. Back home in Silicon Valley, his day job involved coaxing SAP into the Web 2.0 era. But after Zermatt, his nights were devoted to dinners with energy experts, books on energy policy, and sessions on Wikipedia, learning everything he could about the carbon economy. Getting off oil was the key, he decided. But how? He started by looking at cutting energy usage in the home, then moved to a more tempting target: transportation. Was hydrogen the answer? What about embedding power in the street - like slot cars? Could more be done with biofuels? Agassi kept a running file on his home PC and began working on a series of white papers.

The problem, he decided, was oil-consuming, CO2-spewing cars. The solution was to get rid of them. Not just some, and not just by substituting hybrids or flex fuels. No half measures. The internal combustion engine had to be retired. The future was in electric cars.

This was hardly an original insight; electric cars had been the future for over 100 years. In the late 1800s and early 1900s, the Electric Vehicle Company was the largest automaker in the US, with dealers from Paris to Mexico City. But oil, in the end, supplanted volts on American highways because of one perennial problem: batteries. Car batteries, then and now, are heavy and expensive, don't last long, and take forever to recharge. In five minutes you can fill a car with enough gas to go 300 miles, but five minutes of charging at home gets you only about 8 miles in an electric car. Clever tricks, like adding "range extenders" - gas engines that kick in when a battery dies - end up making the cars too expensive.

Agassi dealt with the battery issue by simply swatting it away. Previous approaches relied on a traditional manufacturing formula: We make the cars, you buy them. Agassi reimagined the entire automotive ecosystem by proposing a new concept he called the Electric Recharge Grid Operator. It was an unorthodox mashup of the automotive and mobile phone industries. Instead of gas stations on every corner, the ERGO would blanket a country with a network of "smart" charge spots. Drivers could plug in anywhere, anytime, and would subscribe to a specific plan - unlimited miles, a maximum number of miles each month, or pay as you go - all for less than the equivalent cost for gas. They'd buy their car from the operator, who would offer steep discounts, perhaps even give the cars away. The profit would come from selling electricity - the minutes.

There would be plugs in homes, offices, shopping malls. And when customers couldn't wait to "fill up," they'd go to battery exchange stations where they would pull into car-wash-like sheds, and in a few minutes, a hydraulic lift would swap the depleted battery with a fresh one. Drivers wouldn't pay a penny extra: The ERGO would own the battery.

Agassi unveiled the outline of his vision for the crowd at the Saban event: a new kind of infrastructure, with ubiquitous charge stations, that was not only simple and logical but potentially profitable, too. As he talked, he read the body language of the audience - they were leaning forward, they were nodding - and he fed off it, layering on details. A country like Israel, he told them, could get off oil by simply adopting his new business model. No technological breakthroughs were necessary. No new inventions. It was as if he'd discovered a trapdoor beneath both the gasoline industry and the auto industry, a combined $3 trillion market. It sounded easy and unavoidable. Even Daniel Yergin was amazed. Shai Agassi had stolen the show.

A week later, Agassi was in bed when his phone rang. He was asked to hold for Shimon Peres. At first he thought it was a joke.

"Now what?" said the familiar rumbling voice on the other end of the line. Peres said he had been thinking about Agassi's speech since returning to Israel. He wanted to know what Agassi was going to do about it.

"What do you mean?" Agassi asked.

"You spoke so beautifully, you have to make this a reality. Otherwise, it will remain a speech."

After that conversation, Agassi couldn't get Peres' voice out of his head. A few months later, when his boss broke the news that he wouldn't be getting the top job at SAP anytime soon, Agassi shocked just about everyone in the tech world by quitting. And not long after that, in May 2007, he launched Project Better Place, the world's first global electric-car grid operator (he later dropped "Project"). He had no cars, no test site, and no electrical engineering or auto experience. It wasn't even clear that consumers wanted change. They were paying $3 a gallon, painful but bearable.

Nevertheless, many of Agassi's colleagues from SAP joined him. They realized that what Shai was building was still essentially a software company. He needed a network that allowed cars to tell the grid how much charge they were carrying and how much more they required. The system had to know where the car was so it could tell the driver where to go to "fill up." And it had to electronically negotiate with the local energy utility over when it could and couldn't take power and how much to pay. Few of his colleagues asked to read the business plan before signing on. They were joining the cause, not just the company. "Once you have a mission," Agassi told me over dinner one night last winter, "you can't go back to having a job."

By early summer 2008, Agassi had two countries ready to roll out the plan, a major automaker producing the cars, and $200 million in committed capital. He had launched the fifth-largest startup of all time in less than a year.

After a career spent thinking exclusively about business software, Agassi now thrills to the idea that he's changing the world. "I get to shift multiple markets," he says. "I get to shift economies. It's extremely liberating. I breathe differently."

Israelis like to call Peres, now their president, a visionary, and they mean it as both a compliment and a dig. He sees where things can go but not necessarily how to get there. When I spoke with him, he recognized that Agassi has to deal with the same challenge: "When you translate a dream into reality," he said, "it's never a full implementation. It is easier to dream than to do."

It is mid-May, and Agassi is sitting at the head of a conference table in the Kiryat Atidim high tech office park in northern Tel Aviv. Two dozen Better Place engineers and executives are grabbing platefuls of fresh watermelon and finding seats. About a third have flown in from the company's Palo Alto headquarters; the rest are based here. Agassi knows the Israeli tech community intimately. He was born here to immigrant parents - his dad's family fled from Iraq, his mom's from Morocco - and at 15 he was accepted into the Technion, Israel's MIT. After graduating, he and his father, also a Technion alum, started a series of software companies. They had their pick of talent: The country's density of scientists and engineers is among the highest in the world.

This is the first time that most of these Better Placers have been together in one room. Agassi slumps low in his chair, staring at this morning's first speaker, his little brother, Tal. Better Place is a family affair. Agassi's younger sister, Dafna Barazovsky, also works there, and their father, Reuven, frequently sits in on meetings.

Tal wears a tight-fitting button-down, and as usual his hair is heavily gelled in spikes. At 33, he is Better Place's head of network deployment, overseeing every aspect of the all-important electric grid. Behind him are three gray-and-blue mock-ups of the charging stations. These will be much more than dumb sockets; they have to carry the charge, sure, but they also must withstand being dinged by cars, vandalized by thieves, and subjected to the heat and cold. And they have to communicate with Better Place headquarters to verify that, yes, this is a subscriber and here's how to bill them. The first order of business is to choose a design.

"Put them on the table," Agassi tells his brother, who gently positions the foam models so everyone can vote. The first looks like a giant Pez dispenser, with a skinny trunk leading up to a cantilevered box that houses the charging equipment. The second has a fat base and a skinny body that zigs in the middle, like a svelte E.T. The last one is waist-high, smaller than the others, and resembles a stunted drive-through squawk box. It's the most practical: It can be freestanding or mounted, and it would be the least objectionable to retail centers. It wins unanimous approval. Then, from all around the table, come the real questions. How does the box signal that it's out of service? Where will the 32-amp charging cable go - in the charging spot or in the vehicle? "In America and Australia, it has to be outside the car," declares Ziva Patir, a former vice president of the International Organization for Standardization. Agassi hired her in April, because he not only wants Better Place to adhere to every country's existing regulations, he wants to define the new standards for the coming global electric recharge grid. So the power cords will have to be coiled inside the device and pulled out like a garden hose. But how many hoses? Enough for two cars? Four cars? And if four, won't the box be too small to hold them all? Plus, what if the power outlet on the car is in the back and the driver pulls in facing forward?

Agassi has been listening, saying nothing. But now he reacts. "Our customer goes to park her car," he says. "She pulls in, then she's squeezing between two cars to drag out this big cable and walk it back to her car. She'll be wearing her nice work clothes and getting them dirty." His eyes are closed, his hands resting on his head. "Guys," he says, using a term that always signals his disappointment with the group, "we've just lost half the market. You need to make life simple for people."

Tal stands in the front of the room, slightly stunned. A small-scale Agassi family feud breaks out. Dafna, 37, head of marketing for Better Place's Israel operations, says it's not asking a lot for people to pull into a parking spot a certain way. Their father is sitting up front, but he remains quiet. Tal finally comes up with a response: "We can have a hydraulic arm holding the cable," he says.

That enrages the rest of the room. An arm! The cost of adding an arm to the hundreds of thousands of charge spots they envision will crater the business model, argues someone from the Israeli office. Forget money, someone else says: Redesigning these things will push us way behind on our deadlines. Agassi dismisses the whole idea of an arm. "It'll break in three months," he mutters to himself.

He tries to move the meeting along, but the cable and the connector keep coming up. Each proposed solution creates a new set of problems. ("It's like a fractal," Agassi tells me later of the process, with a hint of pleasure. "But at the end, what you want is a snowflake.") He asks occasional questions, but usually just about how the speaker came to a certain conclusion - it's the thought process more than the answer that seems to intrigue him.

Finally, as Hebrew and English blur into a confusing Esperanto roar, Agassi raises both arms over his head: "One conversation!" he shouts. And then, the pause. He suddenly sees how it's going to work. Maybe the arm isn't so wrong. "This is 'think different,'" he says, invoking Apple, a company that features prominently in the detailed business metaphors he always seems to have at hand. "What do we need to make this happen? Two servos, two degrees of movement for the arm." Pause. "This is the driver experience: He goes into a spot and the spot connects itself. In 2008, we put the cable in the unit, in 2010 we use an arm, in 2012, there's a smart arm that connects automatically. For the home unit, the users get a pull cable for free, or they pay $500 and they get autoconnect. It'll cost $250 to build, and we'll sell it for $500." Agassi has not only come around on the arm, he now thinks it is essential. End of discussion. He even names a company that can build the arm and suggests how to structure the deal.

"Shai's got two big traits," says Aliza Peleg, Better Place's VP of operations. "By the time he's thought of something, to him it's been completed, it's been achieved," she says. "The other trait is that by the time you've understood what he's thinking, he's already somewhere else. You're in catch-up mode 24/7."

For months, Tal and his team have been working with vendors to design and price the charging spots. Now he has to go back and tell them that they need to add arms - and eventually smart arms - and that the redesign has to be ready by their next all-company meeting, in 90 days.

Crazy. That's what people say when they first realize the scope of Agassi's project. He's tilting at electric windmills, fighting a fight that has undone countless well-funded, well-intentioned entrepreneurs before him. In a time when Silicon Valley is all about small - scalable startups like Flickr, Tumblr, and hundreds of other vowel-deprived minicompanies - Agassi is thinking big. Google, Ford, and Exxon Mobil big. His brother tells me that Better Place is going to become one of the biggest companies in the world. When I ask Shai if he's worried about a competitor stealing his idea, he stares at me like I'm an idiot. "The mission is to end oil," he says, "not create a company."

Most startups try out their product on beta testers. Agassi wanted a beta country. A cooperative national government would be willing to modify the tax code or offer other incentives - essential to getting consumers on board quickly. He wasn't selling cars, but really building a network; the bigger the initial base, the stronger the network effect. A small island nation would be ideal, since the range of his car is limited by the range of his charging grid. Fortunately, he already had deep family and business ties to a virtual island - Israel is surrounded by water on one side and by enemies on all others. The farthest a driver can safely go in a straight shot is about 250 miles. Plus, Israel is increasingly queasy about its role as an oil importer. Anything that threatens the livelihoods of hostile Arab oil sheikhs and Iranian mullahs has a special appeal in Agassi's native land.

Agassi got to work convincing the Israeli government in 2007. First he, Peres, and Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert pressed legislators to change the tax code to make electric vehicles more attractive to consumers. Under the proposed tax scheme, Israel's 78 percent tax on cars would be replaced by a 10 percent tax on zero-emission vehicles and a 72 percent tax on traditional gas-guzzlers. (After four years, the sales tax on electric vehicles will rise sharply.) Agassi argued that the revenue losses - calculated at $700 million over five years - would be insignificant compared to what foreign oil costs the economy. At a Jerusalem press conference in late January, Olmert beamed down at Agassi, who was sitting in the front row: "In order to bring about this dramatic change, sometimes we need a boy like in the fairy tales to say, 'Look, the emperor has no clothes.' We can all see that for ourselves, so how come we haven't said so? And this boy comes along and puts things in motion to bring about change. And the boy in this story - and he really is a boy, practically, but he has achieved more than many adults have - is, of course, Shai Agassi."

He had a country, but he also needed someone to build the cars. At the 2007 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, when Agassi was still representing SAP, he met Carlos Ghosn, CEO of both Nissan and Renault-related companies that together form the fourth-largest automaker in the world. The two talked in Peres' hotel room. Agassi's timing couldn't have been better. Ghosn was looking for a way to leapfrog his competitors in the clean-vehicle arena. GM was chasing the hydrogen fuel cell, Ford liked biofuels, Toyota had the Prius. Ghosn was especially dismissive of the hybrid approach: "They're like mermaids," he told the Israelis. "When you want a fish you get a woman, and when you want a woman you get a fish." Ghosn's companies didn't have much except a tiny electric Nissan car and plans for a high-powered lithium-ion battery to be developed by Nissan and NEC. At best, he figured, he might be able to sell the vehicles to post offices or other companies that would buy a few dozen and never drive them more than 60 miles. Agassi's plan could open much bigger doors. Still, who was this guy? Ghosn was interested, but it was too early to make any commitment.

Two months later, Agassi quit his job at SAP. Soon he was looking for money and, in early June, he found himself sitting in an office in Tel Aviv's gleaming Millennium Tower, pitching to one of Israel's richest men, Idan Ofer.

Ofer is short and powerfully built; he carries himself like a wrestler ready for his next takedown. Ofer and his family have investments around the world, and much of their money is tied up in shipping. But he'd recently bought the largest oil refinery in Israel and was finalizing a joint venture with Chery Automobile, the massive Chinese auto company. Ofer liked what Better Place could do for Israel, and he thought it could work around the world. Plus, he really liked how it might make his China investment more valuable. Chery could build cars to work on the Better Place infrastructure. China itself could be a market. (Agassi has no deal yet with Chery, but one is being discussed.)

Most Israeli entrepreneurs who tried to get into Ofer's wallet were interested only in becoming big in Israel, then selling out. Ofer was impressed that Agassi's global ambitions surpassed even his own.

"He had the self-image of being an equal to Steve Jobs or Michael Dell or Bill Gates," Ofer says. "Even if this ends up destroying - for lack of a better word - my refinery business, that will be small money compared to what this will be. When you play chess, you give up something to get something else."

After the meeting, Ofer joined Agassi in the elevator. By the time they got to the street, he had committed $100 million. The total would eventually grow to $130 million. Agassi raised another $70 million more from Morgan Stanley and two venture firms, VantagePoint Venture Partners and Maniv Energy Capital.

Once Agassi had $200 million to fund the grid and a government serious about tax breaks, Renault began developing an electric car that would be ready for the market by 2011. Agassi promises that 50 Renault prototypes will be on Israeli roads this winter - and 1,000 stations will be there to recharge them. He's not talking about some three-wheeled, pimped-out golf carts, either, but blend-in-at-the-school-parking-lot cars and SUVs. The sedan will be mid-size, similar to Renault's popular Laguna and Mégane models and able to go from 0 to 60 in a respectable 7.5 seconds. Better Place expects to have close to 100,000 vehicles by the end of 2011. And while these might show up in Israel first, Renault plans for them eventually to be on roads worldwide. "We wouldn't have invested if we thought this was a onetime, one-place story," says Patrick Pélata, Renault's product manager and Ghosn's number two.

4x4 Projects in Kfar Saba, a suburb of Tel Aviv, is the auto equivalent of an Olympic training center. The building, however, doesn't look like much, just a mustard-yellow warehouse on a cluttered industrial side street. And inside, it's just a warren of cars, trucks, and auto parts. But on a lift sits a white Jeep Wrangler that's been outfitted with supersize off-road wheels, like a monster dune buggy. A green Hummer is parked in back, its diesel engine replaced with a high-powered Chevy small-block. And a silver BMW 318i has a shiny new Corvette V-8; touch the gas and the tail whips out, perfect for drifting. The only vehicle that doesn't really fit in is a completely ordinary family sedan, a silver 2005 Renault Mégane - Better Place's first prototype.

Agassi needed some way to test Better Place's all-important software, called AutOS (pronounced "autos"). The system serves as energy monitor, GPS unit, help center, and personal assistant, packed into an onboard PC that will also hold cellular and Wi-Fi chips. As part of the debugging process, Agassi bought the used Mégane and sent it to 4x4 with his car guy, Quin Garcia. The assignment was to convert it into an electric car.

Garcia was just finishing his master's in automotive engineering at Stanford University last year when he heard Agassi give a speech on campus. A few months later, he had a job at Better Place. Garcia's manner is laid-back Northern California until anything related to cars comes up, at which point he turns as intense as everyone else at Better Place.

Garcia reaches into the Mè9gane and pushes a button. Nothing happens. "It needs to be rebooted," he shouts to the owner of the shop. Garcia opens a silver box under the hood and fiddles with some buttons. "Control-Alt-Delete," jokes Better Place executive Barak Hershkovitz.

Hershkovitz oversees AutOS. He is the hard-nosed realist to Agassi's dreamer, the Scotty to his Kirk. That means Hershkovitz, even when he's joking, comes off hangdog - he knows that deadlines are looming.

Hershkovitz was about to start a residency in ophthalmology when he teamed up with Agassi in 1998. He was a brilliant, self-taught programmer, and what started as a bit of moonlighting quickly turned into a full-time job, first at one of the Agassi family companies, then at SAP. He quit soon after Agassi left, and now, with a staff of six, he's building AutOS.

The system reboots, and Garcia taps a blank spot on the dashboard to show where the car's AutOS-powered LCD will go. The garage's owner gets behind the wheel. I take the passenger seat, Garcia and Hershkovitz climb in back, and we head toward the highway. As we accelerate, I'm pinned uncomfortably to my seat. Unlike a traditional engine, an electric motor produces all of its power right away. (Recently, Ofer, whose $130 million investment made him chair of the board, took the prototype for a spin. Garcia and others watched in horror as Ofer's sharp steering, combined with the instant torque, caused an axle to snap.)

I keep waiting for the shift to another gear - the jerk that signals it's time to breathe again. "A normal gas engine spins at 6,000 rpm," Garcia says, noticing my surprise. "This motor can spin up to 12,000 rpm," which means there's no need to change gears. "You don't have the normal car problem where you need first gear to get off the line. We just took the original transmission and stuck it permanently in second."

As we approach a stop sign, the car feels like it's being held back by a rubber band. The tug, Hershkovitz explains, comes from what's called regeneration. "When you take your foot off the pedal, the car has kinetic energy," he says. "The motor starts charging the battery, turning the kinetic energy back to electric energy." He starts running through possible ways to turn the physics into a game: He wants Better Place users to be able to go to a Web site and see which drivers have racked up the most "regen." Maybe they'll win prizes.

Garcia decides to argue the point. "If you're regening, it means you used too much energy in the first place!" Meaning drivers should just take their foot off the accelerator sooner.

"Ah, you are not a computer. It's not like you can calculate how much energy you need to get to that red light," Hershkovitz says.

"Every time you do regen, there's a loss - it's not like you get it all back," protests Garcia. "The perfect driver would cruise around without ever using regen or the brakes. When they came to their destination, they would coast to a stop."

Hershkovitz ignores him. "Come on, let's go," he says as we pull back into the 4x4 shop. He has an appointment with a Japanese team from NEC to talk batteries. I follow him into his rented Mazda5 and find my body relaxing to the familiar shifts and jerks of the internal combustion engine.

The initial deal with Israel was, thanks to Agassi's connections, practically foreordained. The real test would be signing up a second country - a "validator," to use Agassi's term. In March, he got one. Denmark is everything Israel is not: a cold climate (which is hard on batteries), a net exporter of oil, a nation friendly with its neighbors. Agassi had no ties to the government. But he had a business model that proved irresistible to a Danish company called DONG Energy.

For DONG, Denmark's largest utility, Better Place offers an opportunity to solve one of its biggest problems: the economies of wind power. DONG makes a higher portion of energy from wind - 18 percent - than any other power company in the world. Danish politicians want to see that figure doubled, which is good and green but completely impractical: Some days the wind blows, and some days it doesn't. Banking wind energy is expensive and inefficient - DONG would have to buy fields of batteries. Rather than lose it, the company ends up giving away excess power to Germany and Sweden. So when DONG CEO Anders Eldrup met with Agassi, he immediately saw that Better Place would not only appeal to his countrymen's environmental leanings, but the cars would also be a cheap, distributed way to store excess wind power. After the partnership was announced, Eldrup went for a haircut and found himself bombarded with questions about Better Place. His longtime barber had never once asked about Eldrup's business. Before the Better Place announcement, the man explained, he'd never really cared.

Better Place did seem to sell itself. That's what Agassi was discovering. The day of the Denmark announcement, he received a text message from an executive at a carmaker outside of the US. (He declines to name the company.)

"What's going on in Denmark?" it read.

Agassi, a bit confused, wrote back that he had just announced country two.

"What's the announcement?"

Agassi typed: "Zero percent tax on our cars, DONG as a partner."

The next day he got another text message: "But there was already 0 percent tax on alternative energy cars in Denmark."

Agassi sent back a long missive explaining that because of Better Place, Denmark was talking about expanding its tax break beyond the current 2012 cutoff date; that DONG was promising that it could supply 100 percent clean energy for all Better Place cars; that he's raising an additional$160 million for Denmark alone; and that Renault intended to supply all the cars Denmark could buy. He finished the message with some barbed advice: "I'll be offering $20,000 cars in a market where you're selling $60,000 cars. How many have you planned to sell in 2011 in Denmark? Because I recommend you take them off your plan."

The next day, Agassi was invited to a meeting with the automaker's CEO.

"I have a strong feeling this is where the industry is going to go," says Rod Lache, an auto analyst at Deutsche Bank. In March, Lache crunched the numbers for his clients on what Better Place might do to their portfolio of auto holdings. He figured a typical driver in the US gets 20 mpg. With gas at $4 per gallon, a driver who clocked 15,000 miles per year would have an annual gas bill of $3,000. The equivalent cost of electricity and battery depreciation - Better Place's cost to fill up its customers' cars, in other words - would be about $1,050. If Agassi had cheaper cars (thanks to tax breaks or incentives) and offered monthly plans that were lower than or equal to what consumers were paying at the pump, this would be phenomenally attractive. "Frankly," Lache wrote, "we are not aware of any reason why [automakers] would not sign up for this."

Early this summer, Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche told a German newspaper that his company would have an electric Mercedes and an electric Smart car on the market by 2010. When asked about the cost, he said it really depended on whether the batteries came with the car or were leased. No one had thought about separating the battery from the car before Agassi; now CEOs like Zetsche were treating it as standard electric-car business practice. And yes, Zetche confirmed, Daimler is talking to Better Place.

It's a warm mid-March morning in Washington, DC. Agassi has just flown in from San Francisco on the red-eye. He was booked in business class but ended up in coach, sleeping across three seats. His ever-present uniform - dark suit, white shirt - looks slightly rumpled. For years, Agassi has traveled almost constantly, and the irony of fighting planetary destruction while clocking countless hours of carbon-spewing jet travel isn't lost on him. "I have so many sins to pay on my climate bill right now that we hope this works really fast," he says.

If Better Place is to live up to Agassi's revolutionary goal, it will eventually have to win over Americans, the world's largest per-capita polluters. But that won't be easy.

He starts the day off with a speech at a conference organized by a left-leaning think tank. Speaking without notes, Agassi roams the stage, preaching the inevitability of his plan. He has a way of describing things that is never zero-sum; everybody wins in his version of the future, even when he's selling massive disruption.

"For the car companies, we made it simple," he says. "We separated the ownership of the car and the ownership of the battery. See, car companies don't know how to assess the life of the battery. So they go through these complicated programs of testing them for a long period of time. And we told the car company, you know what? Just like you don't sell a car with a card that says 'Here is oil for the life of the car,' you don't sell cars with the batteries for the life of the car, because the battery is crude oil." He explains that his plan alone, once scaled up, could produce a 20 percent drop in the world's CO2 emissions. And he wasn't stopping there. "If we also buy clean generation, we reduce the price of clean electrons so that at the end of 10 years, clean electrons are cheaper than coal-based electrons, and nobody builds another coal plant at that point. That's another 40 percent of CO2 emissions; that's the treaty Tony Blair is now working to get for the world by 2050. I'm telling you, we can get there a decade after we finish the car side. We can get there in 2030 - 60 percent reduction in our CO2 emissions."

After every speech - or just in the course of everyday business - one or two people ask Agassi for jobs. Michael Granoff, the venture capitalist who was Better Place's earliest investor, now works for Agassi as head of oil independence policies. ("I joke that 29 days a month Shai's my boss, and one day a month" - when Agassi briefs investors - "I'm his," Granoff says.) Today in DC, a young man from the Boston Consulting Group corners Agassi on his way out of the Hilton conference room and hands over his résumé. Granoff, who has organized Agassi's day, waits until the man is out of earshot and reminds Agassi that the same guy made the same request after a speech in Boston. Agassi has a groupie.

Outside the hotel, Granoff and Agassi jump into a hybrid Lexus SUV and head to Capitol Hill for a series of meetings. In the office of a New York House Democrat named Steve Israel, Agassi settles into a leather couch and makes a direct pitch. "Whoever is number 44," meaning the next president, "will transfer $2 trillion to $3 trillion out of the economy" - the amount America will spend on foreign oil in his first term. This is a line Agassi has been testing lately, and Israel seems to bite. "So what do we do?" asks the legislator. Agassi lays it out: He wants tax hikes on gas-powered cars. Israel tells him that will never fly. As Agassi discusses other possible incentives, Israel interrupts him: "We don't make batteries, so aren't we going to swap out foreign-oil dependence for foreign-battery reliance?" It's a strange theory, but Agassi doesn't blink. The conversation suddenly shifts to the best way to set up a battery-manufacturing center in the congressman's Long Island district.

Israel is late for a vote, so everyone hustles off toward the Capitol. As Israel veers away toward the House floor, Agassi enters an elevator followed by Kansas senator Sam Brownback. Granoff, who seems to know everyone in DC, introduces the two and quickly explains Better Place. Brownback asks if he can buy one of Agassi's cars. "One problem: We need the infrastructure first," Agassi says. "That's what we're building."

"All you need is a plug, right? Why would you need an infrastructure?" asks Brownback, who towers over Agassi.

Agassi pulls out his BlackBerry: "We're like AT&T, not Nokia," he says. But the cell phone analogy doesn't click here.

"So you're like a long extension cord?" asks Brownback, and everyone laughs politely. Agassi starts to explain, but the senator steps out. Granoff promises that he'll bring the two men together soon for a more substantial discussion.

The rest of the day proves equally unsatisfying. One senator cancels at the last minute; another offers little but good wishes. In nearly every meeting, insiders ruefully give the same advice. Getting anything like the deal he has in Israel is going to be impossible.

Washington was a bust, but there are other ways to conquer America. Agassi has already been contacted by the mayor of Los Angeles and politicians in Michigan and New York City. San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was in Agassi's Young Global Leaders class. "My proposal was about health care or something in San Francisco," Newsom says sheepishly. He traveled to Israel to meet with Better Place in May. But Agassi is wary. For one thing, San Francisco is hardly an island, and as leader of a municipality, Newsom has few tax levers he can pull to make the electric car affordable. That hasn't kept the mayor from combing through statutes for fees the city might lift. "This is the irony: The city is working harder to get their business than the business itself. Shouldn't he be sucking up to San Francisco?" Newsom asks, only half joking.

But there is a natural place to start in the US. The island state, Hawaii, depends on shipped-in oil; a full 14 percent of the state's annual $62 billion gross domestic product goes to oil producers, more than any state in the nation. After Israel announced its Better Place plans in January, Hawaii governor Linda Lingle asked for a meeting.

This spring, Agassi went to Honolulu. The governor ushered him into her grand koa-wood-paneled conference room. She sat at the head of the table, flanked by cabinet members. Agassi showed them how the model worked, how it would roll out, how unstoppable it would be. The governor's people wanted to know why this wasn't just shifting the environmental burden to the electric utility. Agassi said he'd pay a premium to buy energy made only from renewable sources, making it cost-effective for the utility to put in wind farms or solar-powered plants - something Lingle has been pushing for. The tourism and economic development director was impressed, but one thing bothered him: Consumers want choices. "This is Hawaii," he said. "Where are the convertibles?"

At a larger meeting a few weeks later, one of Agassi's lieutenants made the case to dozens of Hawaii's business and political leaders. Like others, Dave Rolf was intrigued. He represents the state's auto dealers, a powerful lobby in the state capitol that's against anything that cuts into car dealer profits. The meeting lasted eight hours, and Rolf left stunned. Not only was this going to happen, he decided, it needed to happen, and Hawaii was the perfect place. He fired off a letter to GM's regional head in California urging the carmaker to pay attention. The auto industry needed to be part of this from the get-go. They needed to be making electric cars. "This is kind of a world-changer," Rolf says.

A few months ago, I stopped by Agassi's Palo Alto headquarters to sit in on a three-day strategy meeting. The company has just moved in, and the walls are still decorated with motivational posters put up by the previous tenant. Empty cubicles are waiting to be filled.

The entire staff is trying to write a mission statement with help from a moderator. He flips through slides on a screen: "Our mission is to transform personal mobility." "Our mission is to break the world's oil addiction (before it breaks us)."

Agassi, in a black leather jacket, a stiff blue-and-white button-down, and faded jeans, stops the moderator. "We still think we're selling to them," he says, after one of his long, drawn-out pauses. "We're not. It's not us to them. It's them to us. You see, people want this to happen; we just happen to be in the way of their getting what they want. We can't give them the car fast enough. That's something we need to capture: 'We're here to serve you,' not 'We're here to sell to you.' We're a facilitator, not the creator. This is going to be a community. We just need to get out of their way. They're going to push for policy, they're going to sell the cars, they're going to be zealots."

I start thinking about the people he has already hooked: mayors, CEOs, investors, statesmen, even car dealers. At one point, Tal had marveled to me about Shai's ability to convince you that the answers to the most challenging problems are easy and obvious. "He tells you the story, and it sounds so simple. Why don't we have it today? Why isn't it here already?"

It's true. Shai Agassi has only one car, no charging stations, and not a single customer-yet everyone who meets him already believes he can see the future.

For years political thinkers and practitioners have combined the ideas of naturalist Charles Darwin and economist Thomas Malthus to create a worldview in which it is inevitable that population increases eventually overwhelms the planet's resources critical to life support (food, energy, etc.).

Countering this rather pessimistic version of "how the world works" is one that posits that technological know-how will allow humanity to avoid this worst-case scenario. Of course, we have become painfully aware that a blind faith in technology can lead society down its own road to ruin.

Continuing insights into Nature's strategy of "doing more with less" is what we need to create a truly sustainable society that avoids the Malthusian cul-de-sac. (GW)

Are Malthus's Predicted 1798 Food Shortages Coming True?

By Jeffrey D. Sachs
Scientific American
August, 2008

In 1798 Thomas Robert Malthus famously predicted that short-term gains in living standards would inevitably be undermined as human population growth outstripped food production, and thereby drive living standards back toward subsistence. We were, he argued, condemned by the tendency of population to grow geometrically while food production would increase only arithmetically.

For 200 years, economists have contended that Malthus overlooked technological advancement, which would allow human beings to keep ahead of the population curve. The argument is that food production can indeed grow geometrically because production depends not only on land but also on know-how. With advances in seed breeding, soil nutrient replenishment (such as chemical fertilizers), irrigation, mechanization and more, the food supply can stay well ahead of the population curve. More generally, advances in technology in all its aspects—agriculture, energy, water use, manufacturing, disease control, information management, transport, communications—can keep production rising ahead of population.

Another factor undermining Malthus’s argument, it would seem, is the demographic transition, according to which societies move from conditions of high fertility rates roughly offset by high mortality rates to conditions of low fertility rates together with low mortality rates. Malthus did not reckon with the advance of public health, family planning, and modern contraception, which together with urbanization and other trends, would result in a dramatic decline in fertility rates to low levels, even below the “replacement rate” of 2.1 children per household. Perhaps the human population would avoid the tendency towards geometric growth altogether.

These critiques of Malthusian pessimism have long seemed irresistible. Indeed, when I trained in economics, Malthusian reasoning was a target of mockery, held up by my professors as an example of a naïve forecast gone wildly wrong. After all, since Malthus’s time, incomes per person averaged around the world have increased at least an order of magnitude according to economic historians, despite a population increase from around 800 million in 1798 to 6.7 billion today. Some economists have gone so far as to argue that high and rising populations have been a major cause of increased living standards, rather than an impediment. In that interpretation, the eightfold increase in population since 1798 has also raised the number of geniuses in similar proportion, and it is genius above all that propels global human advance. A large human population, so it is argued, is just what is needed to propel progress.

Yet the Malthusian specter is not truly banished—indeed far from it. Our increase in know-how has not only been about getting more outputs for the same inputs, but also about our ability to mine the Earth for more inputs. The first Industrial Revolution began with the use of fossil fuel, specifically coal, through Watt’s steam engine. Humanity harnessed geological deposits of ancient solar energy, stored as coal, oil, and gas, to do our modern bidding. We learned to dig deeper for minerals, fish the oceans with larger nets, divert rivers with greater dams and canals, appropriate more habitats of other species and cut down forests with more powerful land-clearing equipment. In countless ways, we have not gotten more for less but rather more for more, as we’ve converted rich stores of natural capital into high flows of current consumption. Much of what we call “income,” in the true sense of adding value from economic activity, is actually depletion instead, or the running down of natural capital.

And although family planning and contraception have indeed secured a low fertility rate in most parts of the world, the overall fertility rate remains at 2.6, far above replacement. Sub-Saharan Africa, the poorest region of the world, still has a total fertility rate of 5.1 children per woman, and the global population continues to rise by about 79 million per year, with much of the increase in the world’s poorest places. According to the medium-fertility forecast of the United Nations Population Division we are on course for 9.2 billion people by mid-century.

If we indeed run out of inexpensive oil and fall short of food, deplete our fossil groundwater and destroy remaining rainforests, and gut the oceans and fill the atmosphere with greenhouse gases that tip the earth’s climate into a runaway hothouse with rising ocean levels, we might yet confirm the Malthusian curse. Yet none of this is inevitable The idea that improved know-how and voluntary fertility reduction can sustain a high, indeed rising, level of incomes for the world remains correct, but only if future technology enables us to economize on natural capital rather than finding ever more clever ways to deplete it more cheaply and rapidly.

In the coming decades we will have to convert to solar power and safe nuclear power, both of which offer essentially unbounded energy supplies (compared with current energy use) if harnessed properly and with improved technologies and social controls. Know-how will have to be applied to long-mileage automobiles, water-efficient farming, and green buildings that cut down sharply on energy use. We will need to re-think modern diets and urban design to achieve healthier lifestyles that also cut down on energy-intensive consumption patterns. And we will have to help Africa and other regions to speed the demographic transition to replacement fertility levels,